8 Things About IHSA State 2021: The Qualifiers
by Norm Ramil, 8CA main person and dance team fan
3/6/21 1:15am
1: Some new faces at the top
With Centralia inactive in either IHSA or IDTA competition this winter, we’ll have a new 1A champ. 2A has a slot in the top 3 open with Lake Zurich not qualifying last weekend. And the margins between all the elite 3A teams is so narrow that you shouldn’t be surprised if we have the same top 3 as last year (though maybe a different order), but you also shouldn’t be shocked if it’s an all-new top 3.
2: This year’s 90 teams vs. last year’s
You might’ve expected some chaos in a competitive season crammed into 3 weekends plus sectionals…maybe a cinderella emerging, or a powerhouse nosediving? But that’s not how it played out at sectionals. This year’s field of 90 is a lot like last year’s. In 1A, you have 20 teams returning. In 2A, 19 teams are back from last year’s Bloomington state weekend. And in 3A, 23 of this year’s state teams were here last year.
3: High fives to teams who made it in this year after missing out last year
It’s hard not to notice 1A Bishop Mac–out of it last year, and sectional champs this year. DuQuoin, Mahomet-Seymour, and Mattoon are back in it, though these programs have histories at both IHSA and IDTA state. Jersey does, too…but it’s been awhile, and the legitimately looked strong in February running both a pom and hip hop. Now they find themselves in their first-ever IHSA state comp. Also new to IHSA state is Macomb. Payton and Ridgewood have state experience in recent seasons. But it’s been awhile since St. Viator and Woodstock North have been under the IHSA state spotlight.
2A’s newcomers are such an interesting mix. High-performing state veterans Vernon Hills and Lake Forest are back. Ottawa’s in this year’s field, but they’ve had state experience in Bloomington as recently as a couple seasons ago. Riverside-Brookfield was last here in ’18. Prairie Ridge was last at IHSA state in January of ’17. Rolling Meadows last made it in 2015. Willowbrook danced at state 2 years ago, missed it despite being very strong a year ago, and now they’re back.
But we’ve got to give it up for 4 teams in 2A dancing in their first-ever IHSA state contest: Benet, Hampshire, Hoffman Estates, and Streamwood! These 4 very different programs have had this in common over the past, say, five years: they built up slowly, sometimes unevenly, but always pushing hard in the right direction. None of these looked like they snuck into the state field; they’ve each had sparkling moments in the past 2 to 3 years (well-documented on our Twitter feed). The long-term hard work has definitely paid off!
On the other hand, 3A doesn’t have a ton of drama when it comes to newcomers. All seven teams that are in it this year but weren’t in 2020 have state experience in IHSA. Still, it’s pretty cool to welcome back Plainfields North and East, making for a district sweep alongside Plainfields South and Central. Maine South is back, and the steady Prospect program also returns to state. But the biggest stories are Downers Grove South, Jacobs, and Neuqua Valley — all programs with tons of big performances in Bloomington over the years. They missed the show last year and it was strange not to have them be in the state field. This time, they’re not just in the field…they’re baaaack.
4: Coming On Strong
Hmm, I think I did something similar in this morning’s post when I used #4 to keep blabbering about #3…
I’ll start with Downers Grove South. Pretty good in ’19-’20, but with some shaky aspects at times. I did notice that their JV was a nice team a year ago. Fast forward to 2021 and it’s all clicking for the Fillies. Then there’s Prospect, who started off last month modestly but then looked really sharp at sectionals last week. You could say the same for Jacobs, Providence Catholic, Cary-Grove, and Batavia. And so many of the 2A teams have a state-worthy look this season (not just the newcomers, but veterans like Grant, Dunlap, Collinsville, and Pekin, among others). But for week-to-week growth, that award easily goes to Evergreen Park.
5: Quiet and dangerous
They kept a low profile, and then suddenly kicked ass at sectionals: Wauconda and Montini. Just sayin’.
6: Some 1A scores vs z-scores
Z-scores are basically an imperfect way to look at how a team’s performance “looked” versus the other routines in a sectional in the eyes of the judges. Comp blog entries from previous years here on the website can dive deeper if you want, but basically the z-score stat is a way to somehow compare one judge panel’s 87.4 to another panel’s 87.4. As we know, the same score at different sectionals doesn’t mean that both dances made the same impact. Z-scores take into account what the judges really, really loved, what they just didn’t like, and approximates a curve. Yikes. I probably just made a math teacher yell out loud at his computer screen.
So let’s start in 1A. I ranked all 30 teams by score and then again by their z-score. Usually, if the judging is really sharp, the two lists are relatively similar. A few discrepancies stand out, though. Bishop McNamara won their sectional, but when you put them in the field of 30 teams, they rank 7th both in terms of score and z-score. And the rapid improvement of Evergreen Park also shows up in these stats: they have the 14th-best score, but the 10th-best z-score. In other words, they’re middle-of-the-pack when it comes to their score, but the z-score is a measure of the impact they made on a judging panel…and in that department, they’re a top 10 team. Another example is Murphysboro, whose 80.60 puts them in 8th on the scores list, but whose z-score puts them 5th highest.
7: 2A scores and z-scores
Let’s start with Dunlap and why they’re a little scary. First, remember they looked awesome a year ago. Second, they started this year looking good and by the end of February were looking quite awesome. Third, they finished 2nd at sectionals, but hold the 5th highest z-score in 2A (the highest of all the 2nd-place sectional teams). Just another reminder that there’s some amazing dance talent that’s not in the Chicago or St. Louis areas!
Lake Forest is another team that looks just as good on paper as they do on video. They own the 4th-best score, but the 2nd-best z-score in 2A. Oak Forest might hold the lowest sectional score of the 2A field, but their z-score brings them all the way up to 21st. Dark horse Batavia earned the 5th highest score last Saturday in 2A, while their z-score puts them at 3rd overall.
8: 3A scores and z-scores
I already made math teachers roll their eyes, and now the journalism teachers get to shake their heads because I saved a boring stat for last in this article. 3A, as mentioned above, looks really steady and not overly spicy in 2021. The scores vs z-scores support that vibe. In other words, a team that’s in the middle of the pack, score-wise, is just about in that same spot on the z-score list. So if a team hauled a 90 last Saturday, that 90 was roughhhhhhhly the same kind 90 you’d find at another sectional. One exception could be Lake Park: tied for 9th in terms of score (90.23), but 6th on the z-score list.